COSMO Wave 1.9

Background

To support federal response efforts, Impact Canada is leading the implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Behavioural Insights (BI) Tool on COVID-19 in the Canadian context. This work is led in collaboration with the Public Opinion Research Team within the Privy Council Office’s (PCO) Communications and Consultation Secretariat, which supports the Prime Minister’s Office in coordinating government communications in accordance with key priorities.

Methodology

With a longitudinal design, the study follows 2,000 participants recruited from an online panel over sixteen data collection waves. New participants are added only when an original panelist stops participating.

Respondents are a representative mix of Canadian adults aged 18 years and older and results are weighted using 2016 Statistics Canada census data to mirror the population distribution in Canada.

Considerations

When interpreting the COSMO results it is useful to keep in mind the context of the data collection period, which may or may not have influenced the responses of survey participants.

During the Wave 9 data collection period (Nov 2-9, 2020):

1. COVID-19 cases were surging in most provinces and territories. The national COVID-19 case numbers in Canada as of November 3 were 244,935 (including 2,974 new cases).
   • British Columbia reported 299 new cases and a total of 3,098 active cases, with 5.9 cases per 100,000 people.
   • Alberta had 570 new cases and a total of 6,110 active cases, with 13.0 cases per 100,000 people.
   • Saskatchewan reported 81 new cases and a total of 842 active cases, with 6.9 cases per 100,00 people.
   • Manitoba reported 102 new cases and a total of 3,495 active cases, with 7.4 cases per 100,000 people.
   • Ontario reported 1,050 new cases for a total of 8,295 active cases, with 7.2 cases per 100,000 people.
   • Quebec reported 871 new cases yesterday for a total of 9,256 active cases, with 10.3 cases per 100,000 people.
   • NL, NB, NS, PEI, YT, NT and NU all reported 0 new cases and 0 cases per 100,000 people (except NS - 0.1 per 100,000).
2. Increasing case rates were being reported in many countries around the world, coupled with a return to modified lock-down measures in certain countries (e.g. Western Europe, UK).
3. The US Presidential election was underway. Election day was November 3 and on November 7 Joe Biden became the President-Elect as reported by major US media outlets.
4. On November 9 (the last day of COSMO data collection) Pfizer and Biontech announced that the first interim efficacy analysis of their phase 3 study found their vaccine to be over 90% effective. The announcement is not likely to have impacted the results of this Wave of data collection but Wave 10 data will likely reflect what impact, if any, this announcement and subsequent vaccine announcements (i.e. Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen) has had on vaccine intentions.

This page may refer to ‘respondents of the survey’ as ‘Canadians’, or other semantic generalizations. This is for readability only, and is not an endorsement or postulation that estimates should be extrapolated beyond the sample.

Public Risk Perceptions

In Wave 9, there was a significant increase in the proportion of the sample who think that “we are currently experiencing the worst of the crisis,” and a sharp decline in the portion of people who think that the worst of the crisis is behind us. The highest proportion of respondents still think that “the worst of the crisis is yet to come”. Certain groups are more likely to think that “the worst is yet to come,” including those aged 55+ (54%), residents living in British Columbia and the Yukon (59%) and Alberta and the Northwest Territories (53%).

Over Waves 1 to 7 there was a gradual decline in the proportion of Canadians who felt that COVID-19 was “spreading fast” (W1: 56%, W7: 31%). However, in Wave 8, this number increased slightly (35%) and in Wave 9, there was a significant increase (48%). Since the beginning of the crisis, higher numbers of Quebec respondents have reported that COVID-19 feels like it is “spreading fast,” compared to respondents in other provinces and territories. In Wave 9, however, respondents living in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Nunavut were the most likely to report that COVID-19 is “spreading fast” (57%).

Information Sources

Trust in government information sources has declined since the beginning of the pandemic. Respondents aged 18-34 have consistently reported lower levels of trust in most government sources. Trust in government information sources also varies by province/territory and is generally the highest in British Columbia and the Yukon, and the lowest in Alberta and the Northwest Territories.

In Wave 9, respondents were given a series of statements and had to indicate whether they thought the statements were either accurate or “fake news”. Responses indicate that many respondents are susceptible to false information. Men and young people may be more susceptible to misinformation. For example, 20% of respondents thought the following statement was “probably true” or “definitely true”: “The fatality rate of COVID-19 has been deliberately and greatly exaggerated”. 34% of men aged 18-34 and 26% of men aged 35-54 thought the statement was “probably true” or “definitely true”. Men and young people were also more likely to get their information about COVID-19 from social sources, such as friends and family and social media.

Compliance with Protective Behaviours

Adherence to key protective behaviours such as mask wearing (81%), using hand sanitizer (79%), frequent hand washing (72%) and physical distancing (71%) remains high. Men and younger respondents in the sample continue to indicate lower compliance with recommended protective behaviours. For example, only 52% of young men (18-34) report that they always or almost always practice physical distancing (i.e., staying at least 2 meters from others) to keep from getting sick with COVID-19.

Holidays

Despite public health guidance in some provinces and high numbers of people indicating they were aware of gathering limits in their area (89%), a high proportion of respondents report that they had indoor, in-person gatherings at Thanksgiving (42%). More Canadians will observe December holidays than Thanksgiving, and a sizable proportion may not heed public health advice to limit gatherings. 82% of respondents report that they typically celebrate holiday gatherings in-person and 63% of respondents would be prepared to cancel in-person gatherings this year if that was recommended by public health officials in response to COVID-19. However, some respondents are unwilling (14%) to cancel in-person gatherings, would “maybe” (20%) cancel in-person gatherings, or are unsure (4%) whether they would.

Vaccine confidence

The Wave 9 survey asked respondents about their intentions to vaccinate across several different measures to add nuance to our growing understanding of hesitancy and its drivers. Using a 7-point scale from ‘Strongly Disagree’ to ‘Strongly Agree’, respondents were asked whether they would get a safe vaccine if it becomes available and recommended to them. 61% either agreed or strongly agreed that they would. This declined in Wave 9 after remaining stable at about 65% since Wave 4 (May 26-June 1).

Using a categorical question, respondents were also asked: ‘If a COVID-19 vaccine became available to you, would you get vaccinated, or not?’ with the following response options: ‘Yes, I would get a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as it became available to me’; ‘Yes, I would eventually get a COVID-19 vaccine, but would want to wait a bit’; ‘No, I would not get a COVID-19 vaccine’; and, ‘Not sure’. When the option to defer choice was introduced, 43% of respondents indicated that they would get vaccinated right away and 33% said that they would want to wait before getting vaccinated. In a follow up question presented only to respondents who indicated that they plan to wait, most said they want to wait a month or two (37%), or several months (27%). 65% of those who want to wait go onto indicate that their primary reason for waiting is to ensure the safety of the vaccines and that there are no side effects, and 23% would wait to ensure the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Returning to Normal

52% of respondents visited with friends and family indoors in the past two weeks, signaling that while most do not intend to gather in large groups many people are still seeing friends and family. Only 23% of respondents think that it is likely that they will go to an indoor gathering with ten or more people within the next year. Young people (30%) are more likely than older respondents (17%) to indicate that they will gather with groups of ten or more within the next year. People living in the Atlantic provinces (34%) are more likely than respondents living in other provinces and territories to think that they will gather in large groups, and residents of British Columbia and the Yukon (15%) are less likely.

Travel Intentions and Border Measures

A majority of respondents would like to see both US restrictions (86%) and international restrictions (83%) remain in place for 1-6+ months. There is low comfort overall with increasing travel, however, Canadians may be slightly more comfortable with increased travel from countries with fewer COVID-19 cases. For example, 13% of respondents were comfortable increasing travel with Australia, 11% were comfortable increasing travel with South Korea, and 10% were comfortable increasing travel with Japan. Respondents were most uncomfortable allowing greater travel with India (78%) and Brazil (78%).